The opening ceremony of the new Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline took place on May 25, 2005 in Baku. As a result of this actively “publicized” event, a huge number of media outlets and all kinds of analysts in many countries began to talk about the possible consequences for Russia in terms of the loss or retention of the transit of Kazakh oil through its territory. What factors (external and internal) determine from an economic point of view the possibility of exporting hydrocarbons, primarily oil, from Kazakhstan? How do all these factors relate to the situation in Russia and its likely actions? This study is an attempt to objectively assess the current situation