The new work by Philip Tetlock, a renowned psychologist and expert in the field of political psychology, co-authored with renowned science journalist Dan Gardner, is already being called “the most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking Slow, Decide Fast.” Using the vast, urgently relevant material of modern geopolitics, the authors study the issue of the reliability of a variety of forecasts - from political to everyday ones - and offer a practical and effective system of thinking that will allow you to develop the ability to make forecasts that come true. Set priorities correctly, break complex problems into series small and completely solvable, finding a balance between looking from the outside and from the inside of the problem - these are just a few life hacks that will help you correctly predict the future!